A. Situation analysis
Description of the disaster
Kenya is now entering the 2022 election campaign period which runs from April to the election on 9th of August and if there is a runoff, it could be extended to the 31st of October. Based on the experience of previous elections there is a potential for heightened tension leading to disturbances. As such, the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies has allocated funds through this Anticipatory DREF to Kenya Red Cross to be prepared to support potentially affected communities.
As 2022 marks the 6th general election cycle since the introduction of the multi-party democracy in Kenya, electoral disturbances have been experienced in most of the election years though of smaller magnitude. However, the 2007/2008 post-election violence is the worst disturbance in the multi-party era of Kenya with over 1,133 fatalities and 650,000 displacements, 3,561 injuries, and 117,216 private and 491 government properties destroyed. The 2017 electoral process affected Kenya’s key democratic institutions and its social cohesion, leaving the country deeply divided after an annulled presidential election, followed by a rerun of the election which was marred by lowlevel violence and an opposition boycott. While Kenya was able to avoid the large-scale violence that undermined several past elections, the 2017 elections were characterized by a tense political environment throughout the electoral period, from the party primaries in April to the rerun presidential election in October 2017. There were multiple violent protests, more than 100 reported deaths, and many more injuries, including children. This indicates a fragile political environment that could deteriorate. This represents a potential cause for unrest during each General Election period.
With regards to the upcoming 2022 General Elections period, and especially during the recent by-elections across the country, incidences of inter-communal conflict and displacement, have so far been observed in many parts (Marsabit, Baringo, Wajir, and Isiolo amongst others). Whilst the priority is to support peace-building and prevention efforts, previous outbreaks of violence have demonstrated the importance of planning for potential humanitarian response activities.
Based on the above, there is potential for humanitarian consequences requiring a response from the Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement in the run-up to the election and the post-election period. As such, Kenya Red Cross will take preventive measures to prepare for the anticipated impact that these events could have on the humanitarian situation before, during, and after the elections.
To note, the critical dates around which tensions could occur currently include:
9 th April 2022: Party Membership sends lists to the Commission
16 -17 April: Publishing by the Commission of the names of candidates contesting in a party primary and the date of the party primary. This will be published in the Gazette.
22 April: Holding of party primaries and resolution of intraparty disputes
28 April: Presentation of presidential candidates through direct nominations by parties
2 nd May: Presentation of independent candidates and their symbols to the Commission
13 May: Publishing, in the Gazette, of the names and symbols of the independent candidates
23 May: Candidates intending to participate in the Presidential election deliver to the Commission a list bearing the names, respective signatures, identity cards or passport numbers of at least 2000 voters registered in each of a majority of the counties on or before Monday, 23rd May 2022
29 May to 8 August: Official campaign period, which will mark the beginning of major rallies right down to its end.
9 August: General Election Day, according to Gazette Notice published by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) on Friday, 21 January 2022.
Should there be a need for a rerun, this would extend the election period up to the end of October 2022.
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