Kenya Drought Flash Appeal – Oct-Dec 2021 (Issued September 2021) – Kenya – ReliefWeb

Context of the Crisis

The cumulative impact of two consecutive poor rainy seasons,
coupled with the COVID-19 pandemic, insecurity, pests and
diseases have caused humanitarian needs to rapidly rise in the
Arid and Semi-Arad Lands (ASAL) region of Kenya, leading to the
declaration of a national disaster by the President of Kenya on 8
September 2021. Both the 2020 short rains (October to December)
and the 2021 long rains (March to May) were poor across the ASAL
counties. The two rainy seasons were characterized by late onset
rainfall in most counties, as well as poor distribution of rainfall in time
and space. In addition, forecasts indicate that the upcoming short
rains season (October to December 2021) is likely to be below-average,
compounded by the negative Indian Ocean Dipole.

There are now at least 2.1 million people who are severely food
insecure and adopting irreversible coping strategies to meet
their minimum food needs, and this is expected to rise to nearly
2.4 million people from November 2021, according to the latest
Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) analysis. This will include an
estimated 368,000 people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and 2 million
people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and is nearly three times (852,000) the
number of people who were facing high acute food insecurity from
October to December 2020. Nine counties are expected to have the
highest numbers of people in IPC Phase 3 and above from November
2021 onwards: Turkana, Mandera, Lamu, Garissa, Wajir, Kwale,
Kitui, Tana River and Isiolo. Food insecurity is expected to worsen
in the period ahead based on the likelihood of poor rains during the
upcoming short rains season (October to December).

Livelihoods have been severely impacted by the multiple shocks
that communities have endured over the past year. The 2021 long
rains production in the marginal areas is expected to be 42 to 70
per cent below the long-term average (LTA) for maize, 61 to 89 per
cent below LTA for green grams and 58 to 86 per cent below LTA for
cowpeas. For farming households, below-average harvests result
in reduced household income, making it difficult for families to
purchase food as household food stocks decline. Household maize
stocks are 31 to 54 percent below the five-year average in most
marginal agricultural areas, with maize stocks projected to last one
to two months compared to three or four months normally, according
to the 2021 Long Rains Assessment, led by the National Drought
Management Agency (NDMA). In pastoral areas, below- average
rangeland regeneration has negatively impacted livestock production,
resulting in below-average milk production and consumption and
high staple food prices. Milk production ranges from 0.25 to 3 litres
per household per day compared to the normal 2 to 6 litres. Likewise,
daily household milk consumption ranges from 0.25 to 1.6 litres per
household per day compared to the average 1 to 3 litres.

Over 465,200 children under 5 and over 93,300 pregnant or lactating
women are acutely malnourished in the ASAL region, according
to the latest IPC Acute Malnutrition Analysis. The nutrition situation
is Critical (IPC Acute Malnutrition (AMN) Phase 4) in Garissa, Wajir,
Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, North Horr and Laisamis sub-counties in
Marsabit County and Tiaty in Baringo County and Serious (IPC AMN
Phase 3) in Tana River and West Pokot Counties. Worryingly, acute
malnutrition has surpassed the emergency threshold in many areas,
affecting between 15 per cent and 30 per cent of children in at least
eight counties. Low food and milk availability, high morbidity, limited
access to health and nutrition services, stock-out of essential supplies
for management of acute malnutrition and poor childcare practices,
coupled with underlying issues such as poverty, high illiteracy, and
poor infrastructure have resulted in atypically high acute malnutrition
prevalence across pastoral areas. In the period ahead, the nutrition
situation is projected to worsen, particularly affecting children and
mothers, in Turkana, Samburu, Mandera, Garissa, Wajir, Isiolo and
North Horr and Laisamis, and will deteriorate significantly if the 2021
short rains perform poorly, as anticipated.

Access to water is an urgent concern for both humans and
livestock. Many open water sources -including rivers, water pans,
and dams- have dried up across pastoral and marginal agricultural
livelihood zones, and other open water sources at 20 to 40 percent
of capacity. Eighty-seven per cent of counties report above-average
distances to water sources for households and 78 per cent report
above-average distances to water for livestock, according to the latest
NDMA monitoring. Household trekking distances to watering points
have increased to an average of 2 to 6 kilometers, up from the five-year
average of 1 to 5 kilometers. Across most pastoral areas, livestock
return trekking distances have also increased: in Marsabit, trekking
distances are exceptionally high at 25 to 30 kilometers, compared to
15 to 20 kilometers normally; in Wajir, livestock trekking distances
range from 15 to 20 km, around 3 to 4 times the normal distance of 5
kilometers.

With pastoralists having to walk longer distances in search of water,
food and forage for their livestock, tensions among communities
have risen and an increase in inter-communal conflict has been
reported, according to an assessment by the ASAL Humanitarian
Network. Atypical livestock migration is expected to intensify from
September through October 2021 and from December 2021 until the
beginning of the 2022 March to May long rains, according to the latest
IPC analysis. As rangeland resources deteriorate rapidly in the period
ahead, migration to dry-season grazing areas and other atypical routes
are expected to further intensify, potentially increasing the incidence of
resource-based conflict and disrupting markets, schooling, livelihoods
and access to health facilities and services

Source